The Bahujan Samaj Party’s decline has taken place over a decade, but the party always seemed to hold out the promise that a resurgence was just another election away. Despite a humiliating defeat and almost a near rout of the party in 2022 in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab assembly elections, Mayawati’s latest communique, made on her 67th birthday, has forced analysts to think about her real intentions. The four-time Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh said, “BSP won’t align with any political parties in the upcoming elections and will fight on its own.” She targeted the Opposition parties, accusing them of conspiring against the BSP to stop the party from moving forward. Naming the Congress in her diatribe, the BSP supremo said that parties were trying to ally with the BSP but ideologies do not match. This is not just a straightforward proclamation, but a well-thought-out strategy meant to send a strong signal to the Opposition and the Bharatiya Janata Party, and at the same time to invigorate her cadres who seem to be down in the dumps especially after the Uttar Pradesh debacle.
Today the road ahead for Ms Mayawati’s BSP seems to be one of concrete baked by a hot summer sun on which the party is compelled to walk barefoot. Fear of the Enforcement Directorate building heat around her in connection with the memorial scam always looms large, and therefore Behenji is forced to maintain distance from the Opposition parties who are under the BJP’s scrutiny. Declaring that she has closed off all possibilities for alliance with any political party is an explicit message to the BJP that the BSP is innocuous. The BJP can take comfort in believing that the BSP chief is alone and isolated in the political contest; thus, this is an intelligent ploy by her to ward off the enforcement agencies and guard her house well, at least till the 2024 elections.
Ms Mayawati’s birthday announcement also indicates that she knows if she babbles too much, it could prove counterproductive, therefore keeping an arm’s length from the Opposition parties would position her safely. But does that mean that she has abandoned her pursuit for power, to realise her dream of becoming the first Dalit Prime Minister? With Rahul Gandhi practically saying in so many words that he isn’t interested in occupying the PM’s chair, there are murmurs within the Grand Old Party on fielding Mallikarjun Kharge as the Dalit PM face. With the stage being set along these lines, Ms Mayawati would want to step up her pressure on the Congress by maintaining her solo stance so that she can stake the claim for the PM’s post in case an Opposition front is formalised. To what extent backroom negotiations will culminate in something fruitful is something to watch out for, because the Dalit and Muslim votes can be consolidated well if the Congress and the BSP come together. The decimation in UP and Punjab, where it has historically been a political force since its formation in 1984, however, places a huge question mark on the BSP’s future. A 10% fall in the vote share from 2017 and a solitary MLA in Uttar Pradesh comes at a time when Dalits are reasserting their rights and are willing to hit the streets to voice their concerns. By not getting into any alliances can BSP engage proactively with such mobilisations and revive its character to stay relevant in the electoral space? This is something which will be keenly watched.
The BSP was missing in action in Uttar Pradesh during the CAA protests, anti-Dalit violence and the pandemic. The party’s noticeably low-key campaign gave the impression that the the BSP had given up its fight. The BSP’s cadres are presently demotivated — the party’s core voter base of Dalits, Jatavs and non-Jatavs have fragmented and veered towards either the BJP or the SP. Will Ms Mayawati be forced to shift gears from the idea of Sarvjan Samaj and go back to Kanshi Ram’s Bahujan Samaj politics? Signs have begun to emerge, as Ms Mayawati has started holding cadre camps in various districts, addressing the most backward classes and the Dalits. Her birthday address was also replete with references where she attacked the present Narendra Modi Government for not taking reservations seriously. Her speech also gives an indirect peek into her social engineering experiment where she will lean more towards the backward, most backward and the Dalits, which comprise 60% population of the country. In case she falters then the substantial core voter base of 12% stands to shrink further — which she can ill afford at this point of time. Ms Mayawati had almost turned the party into an extension of her personality and now her family. With no second rung leadership having evolved, and now this declaration of contesting alone in future, has Ms Mayawati stretched her limits in testing the political waters? Has she made up her mind to come out of her ivory tower and rebuild the party, just as Kanshi Ram cemented the bricks by moving around on his bicycle?
The birthday declaration by Ms Mayawati is seemingly couched in rhetoric, symbols and overtures but till such time as she hits the ground, it’s difficult to fathom what she means, what she wants to disclose and what she wants to cover up and hide. The BSP’s Maya remains a mystery — but she continues to be the tallest Dalit leader of the country, and the community wants to see her address the nation from the ramparts of the Red Fort. Ms Mayawati is beginning to germinate green shoots for her party during times which are nothing but a political drought for her. To write the political obituary of the BSP or its leader would be premature, but how she will save the party from sinking into an existential crisis is something which will be analysed, dissected and discussed in the days to come.
Neelu Vyas is a senior television anchor and consulting editor with Satya Hindi
